ArchOptions: A Real Options-Based Model for Predicting the Stability of Software Architectures

Architectural stability refers to the extent an architecture is flexible to endure evolutionary changes in stakeholders’ requirements and the environment. We assume that the primary goal of software architecture is to guide the system’s evolution. We contribute to a novel model that exploits options theory to predict architectural stability. The model is predictive: it provides “insights” on the evolution of the software system based on valuing the extent an architecture can endure a set of likely evolutionary changes. The model builds on Black and Scholes financial options theory (Noble Prize wining) to value such extent. We show how we have derived the model: the analogy and assumptions made to reach the model, its formulation, and possible interpretations. We refer to this model as ArchOptions.